Will he, or won't he? Play, that is. The biggest question leading up to the gold-medal game is the status of Sidney Crosby.
photo: Andre Ringuette/IIHF
One game. Two teams. That’s all that’s left in the 2026 Olympics, hockey-wise. The most prestigious medal in hockey is on the line, and Canada and the United States will be facing off this afternoon at Santagiulia to see who gets it. During this calm before the storm, we asked the three IIHF.com writers on site for their opinions. Here are the answers from Lukas Aykroyd, Risto Pakarinen, and Andrew Podnieks.
Q: Coming into the game, who has the advantage?
LA: These are two dominant, evenly-matched teams. But as top U.S. defender Quinn Hughes put it, the Canadians are “battle-tested.” They had to rally to beat Czechia 4-3 in overtime, on Mitch Marner’s spectacular solo effort, and Finland 3-2, on Nathan MacKinnon’s power-play goal to finally take their first lead with just 36 seconds left. Conversely, the Americans had a much softer playoff run. Yes, they had a little scare when Sweden tied it up late, paving the way for Hughes’ sudden-death 2-1 winner. But the 6-2 win over Slovakia was a cakewalk. Psychologically, Canada has always benefited from a wake-up call or two in its triumphs at the “NHL Olympics.” The Americans will be excited to compete on Sunday, but Canada will be more ready.
RP: Canada has the best shooting percentage and the best power play in the tournament, and in a closely contested game, well, it probably will come down to that one chance and one shot. Canada has dodged a bullet twice in the tournament, and while the pessimist might see that as a weakness against a team of the USA’s calibre, I think it probably makes them feel like the team of destiny and that no set of brothers can stop them. Now, looking at how the teams played in their quarter-finals or semi-finals doesn’t really help us because the Canada-United States games are like nothing else. They inhabit a world of their own, sometimes with their own rules. Canada’s downfall would be playing into the shenanigans the Americans may be up to. It’s the Olympics, the gold medal is on the line – not personal pride.
AP: Both teams were able to bypass the Qualification Round, which is good and bad. An extra game always helps with developing chemistry. That being said, Canada’s two dramatic come-from-behind wins certainly make them a bit more psychologically tougher. Canada has lost only two best-on-best games since 2010, but both of those were to the U.S., in early rounds of the Vancouver Olympics and last year’s 4 Nations. With a more NHL style of play at this year's Olympics, both teams are a little banged up, but the two things Canada has are (a) the historical DNA to produce high drama when it’s required and (b) roster experience in big games.
Q: How important is Sidney Crosby’s status?
RP: Should Crosby be in the lineup, it would be the equivalent of Rocky switching back to being a southpaw, or Inigo Montoya and the Man in Black switching back to their right hands in The Princess Bride sword fight. Not only would it be a major mental boost, it would give Canada the centre-ice depth they need.
AP: Crosby is 38 and still, amazingly, the very core of the team’s makeup. Maybe it’s more in a leadership role than goals and assists, but his addition would be massive to the team’s psyche. Without him, the team is, quite simply, losing offence and losing his presence, a significant intangible. He controls the play so well and moves pucks around with speed and creativity, and remains a danger in front of the enemy goal. He’s worth at least one goal to the team.
LA: Naturally, the Canadians are better off with an IIHF Triple Gold Club member who scored huge goals in their last two Olympic gold-medal victories. Crosby is also their best faceoff man. And it’s pretty impressive that on a team this deep, he’s still fourth in team scoring after playing close to five fewer periods than his teammates. But Crosby will still be there to provide that voice of experience and calming presence even if he’s not dressed or can only play limited minutes. The Canadians will be motivated to win for him regardless.
Q: Who is the biggest threat on the U.S. side?
RP: I mentioned the sets of brothers earlier. The Hugheses and the Tkachuks are the engines that drive this team. Quinn Hughes plays half the game, and he quarterbacks the power play. Jack, who stole the show in the semi-finals with two goals, seems ready to take it up another notch. Quinn and Jack are first and second in team scoring. Matthew Tkachuk has quietly collected six points – all assists – which is one more than Brady. A dark horse? Tage Thompson, who scored the World Championship-winning goal last May. He’s got a cannon of a shot that is a weapon on the power play.
LA: I’m based in Vancouver, and having watched Quinn Hughes closely since his World Junior days, it’s clear that he’s at the top of his game now. He’s been the best defenceman in this tournament. Odds are the Americans will control the puck and dominate shot attempts whenever he’s on the ice. Quinn has been in on the last three U.S. winning goals going back to the 5-1 preliminary-round victory over Germany. As a bonus, he’s inspiring his brother, Jack, to step up. Jack is tied for second in U.S. scoring with six points despite averaging just 12:04 per game.
AP: The Tkachuks are a lot of noise but, I agree, it’s Quinn Hughes you have to watch. He is the Cale Makar of the U.S. Blink and he’s by you. Hesitate and he makes that key pass. Miss the block and his shots will get through. And as we know from Bobby Orr to Paul Coffey and on, it’s almost impossible to check a defender, so Quinn Hughes is the player to watch and be wary of if you’re Jon Cooper trying to plot a game plan. Neutralize him, and your chances of winning increase significantly.
Q: Let’s keep it simple – who’s going to win?
LA: In Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Macklin Celebrini, Canada has the three best forwards in the tournament, and they’re firing on all cylinders. Do the Canadians need more contributions from their second and third lines? Sure, but in this scenario against their archrival, I expect that to happen, too – and for coach Jon Cooper’s team to buckle down on the back end. Canada has proven – both historically and at these Olympics – that it just finds a way. The U.S. has never been as reliable, even factoring in the strides it’s made with back-to-back World Junior titles in 2024 and 2025 and its first IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship gold medal in 92 years in 2025. Beating Canada best-on-best and winning Olympic gold for the first time since the 1980 “Miracle on Ice” would be an historic turning point for USA Hockey. But I suspect Canada wins by a goal and that that turning point will be put on hold.
AP: It’s easy to see either team winning, but the two hockey cultures are so radically different. If the U.S. wins, it’s a great moment, their best hockey result since the 1996 World Cup. But you can lump this win in alongside other U.S. gold medals in Milan. In Canada, John Furlong, president and CEO of the Vancouver Organizing Committee in 2010, perhaps said it best. No matter how many gold medals Canada wins at the Olympics, many fans would happily trade them all in for a gold in men’s hockey. It’s not just important—it’s culturally essential.
RP: Keep it simple? Fine. Canada.
Canada v USA
Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena
14:10 (local time)
Q: Coming into the game, who has the advantage?
LA: These are two dominant, evenly-matched teams. But as top U.S. defender Quinn Hughes put it, the Canadians are “battle-tested.” They had to rally to beat Czechia 4-3 in overtime, on Mitch Marner’s spectacular solo effort, and Finland 3-2, on Nathan MacKinnon’s power-play goal to finally take their first lead with just 36 seconds left. Conversely, the Americans had a much softer playoff run. Yes, they had a little scare when Sweden tied it up late, paving the way for Hughes’ sudden-death 2-1 winner. But the 6-2 win over Slovakia was a cakewalk. Psychologically, Canada has always benefited from a wake-up call or two in its triumphs at the “NHL Olympics.” The Americans will be excited to compete on Sunday, but Canada will be more ready.
RP: Canada has the best shooting percentage and the best power play in the tournament, and in a closely contested game, well, it probably will come down to that one chance and one shot. Canada has dodged a bullet twice in the tournament, and while the pessimist might see that as a weakness against a team of the USA’s calibre, I think it probably makes them feel like the team of destiny and that no set of brothers can stop them. Now, looking at how the teams played in their quarter-finals or semi-finals doesn’t really help us because the Canada-United States games are like nothing else. They inhabit a world of their own, sometimes with their own rules. Canada’s downfall would be playing into the shenanigans the Americans may be up to. It’s the Olympics, the gold medal is on the line – not personal pride.
AP: Both teams were able to bypass the Qualification Round, which is good and bad. An extra game always helps with developing chemistry. That being said, Canada’s two dramatic come-from-behind wins certainly make them a bit more psychologically tougher. Canada has lost only two best-on-best games since 2010, but both of those were to the U.S., in early rounds of the Vancouver Olympics and last year’s 4 Nations. With a more NHL style of play at this year's Olympics, both teams are a little banged up, but the two things Canada has are (a) the historical DNA to produce high drama when it’s required and (b) roster experience in big games.
Q: How important is Sidney Crosby’s status?
RP: Should Crosby be in the lineup, it would be the equivalent of Rocky switching back to being a southpaw, or Inigo Montoya and the Man in Black switching back to their right hands in The Princess Bride sword fight. Not only would it be a major mental boost, it would give Canada the centre-ice depth they need.
AP: Crosby is 38 and still, amazingly, the very core of the team’s makeup. Maybe it’s more in a leadership role than goals and assists, but his addition would be massive to the team’s psyche. Without him, the team is, quite simply, losing offence and losing his presence, a significant intangible. He controls the play so well and moves pucks around with speed and creativity, and remains a danger in front of the enemy goal. He’s worth at least one goal to the team.
LA: Naturally, the Canadians are better off with an IIHF Triple Gold Club member who scored huge goals in their last two Olympic gold-medal victories. Crosby is also their best faceoff man. And it’s pretty impressive that on a team this deep, he’s still fourth in team scoring after playing close to five fewer periods than his teammates. But Crosby will still be there to provide that voice of experience and calming presence even if he’s not dressed or can only play limited minutes. The Canadians will be motivated to win for him regardless.
Q: Who is the biggest threat on the U.S. side?
RP: I mentioned the sets of brothers earlier. The Hugheses and the Tkachuks are the engines that drive this team. Quinn Hughes plays half the game, and he quarterbacks the power play. Jack, who stole the show in the semi-finals with two goals, seems ready to take it up another notch. Quinn and Jack are first and second in team scoring. Matthew Tkachuk has quietly collected six points – all assists – which is one more than Brady. A dark horse? Tage Thompson, who scored the World Championship-winning goal last May. He’s got a cannon of a shot that is a weapon on the power play.
LA: I’m based in Vancouver, and having watched Quinn Hughes closely since his World Junior days, it’s clear that he’s at the top of his game now. He’s been the best defenceman in this tournament. Odds are the Americans will control the puck and dominate shot attempts whenever he’s on the ice. Quinn has been in on the last three U.S. winning goals going back to the 5-1 preliminary-round victory over Germany. As a bonus, he’s inspiring his brother, Jack, to step up. Jack is tied for second in U.S. scoring with six points despite averaging just 12:04 per game.
AP: The Tkachuks are a lot of noise but, I agree, it’s Quinn Hughes you have to watch. He is the Cale Makar of the U.S. Blink and he’s by you. Hesitate and he makes that key pass. Miss the block and his shots will get through. And as we know from Bobby Orr to Paul Coffey and on, it’s almost impossible to check a defender, so Quinn Hughes is the player to watch and be wary of if you’re Jon Cooper trying to plot a game plan. Neutralize him, and your chances of winning increase significantly.
Q: Let’s keep it simple – who’s going to win?
LA: In Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Macklin Celebrini, Canada has the three best forwards in the tournament, and they’re firing on all cylinders. Do the Canadians need more contributions from their second and third lines? Sure, but in this scenario against their archrival, I expect that to happen, too – and for coach Jon Cooper’s team to buckle down on the back end. Canada has proven – both historically and at these Olympics – that it just finds a way. The U.S. has never been as reliable, even factoring in the strides it’s made with back-to-back World Junior titles in 2024 and 2025 and its first IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship gold medal in 92 years in 2025. Beating Canada best-on-best and winning Olympic gold for the first time since the 1980 “Miracle on Ice” would be an historic turning point for USA Hockey. But I suspect Canada wins by a goal and that that turning point will be put on hold.
AP: It’s easy to see either team winning, but the two hockey cultures are so radically different. If the U.S. wins, it’s a great moment, their best hockey result since the 1996 World Cup. But you can lump this win in alongside other U.S. gold medals in Milan. In Canada, John Furlong, president and CEO of the Vancouver Organizing Committee in 2010, perhaps said it best. No matter how many gold medals Canada wins at the Olympics, many fans would happily trade them all in for a gold in men’s hockey. It’s not just important—it’s culturally essential.
RP: Keep it simple? Fine. Canada.
Canada v USA
Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena
14:10 (local time)