Are the Swiss a sure-fire bet to advance in the 2025 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship quarter-finals? Or is there a small chance Austria could pull off an upset? Our Herning experts Andy Potts and Lucas Aykroyd weigh in on this and other questions.
photo: PHOTO: © INTERNATIONAL ICE HOCKEY FEDERATION / MATT ZAMBONIN
The preliminary round of the 2025 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship has wrapped up and four intriguing quarter-finals lie ahead on Thursday. We caught up with Lucas Aykroyd and Andy Potts – our veteran correspondents tracking the action in Herning, Denmark – for their latest insights.
We witnessed a ton of hat tricks in the preliminary round. Which one was the most memorable for you and why?
Potts: I’ll go with Sven Andrighetto’s awesome foursome against Germany. Four-goal hauls are pretty rare at the best of times (even though Eeli Tolvanen was pulling the same stunt at the same time in Stockholm). Reeling off four straight like that is even rarer. With Denis Malgin assisting on each of them, you’ve got a “When was the last time...?” query to test even the most dedicated statistician. And let’s not forget that the Germans are no mugs: this isn’t a case of flexing on a rank outsider.
Aykroyd: Stian Solberg’s hat trick against the Americans stands out just because he’s a 19-year-old defenceman playing for a perennial underdog in Norway. He seemed to just go for it and have so much fun with it. Also, Solberg’s better-known for his physical, agitating presence. It made you wonder if we’ll see more offensive outbursts from him with Anaheim in the future or on an Olympic stage, or whether this was just a curious one-off.
Who from Group B is most likely to win the tournament scoring title?
Aykroyd: Would you believe David Pastrnak has already shattered his personal single-tournament high in points? The Boston superstar leads all skaters so far (6+8=14 in seven games). He’s had never had more than 10 points before (7+3=10 in seven games), dating back to 2022’s bronze medal run. Of course, there’s a big “if” associated with this pick, in that the Czechs will probably need to stun host nation Sweden in the quarter-finals for it to pan out. But given how the chemistry between “Pasta” and captain Roman Cervenka continues to build, I still like his odds.
Potts: Regular Ask The Experts readers (!?) may recall that I’m often dubious about the U.S.’s chances. But this year, the Americans have a “dark horse” vibe. They’ve quietly taken care of business up to now and seemed to get stronger as the preliminary round progressed – culminating in an impressive win over the Czechs. Frank Nazar is already riding high in the scoring race, and you sense that if the U.S. medals, he’ll likely be on the scoring podium.
What’s a savvy coaching decision or tactic that has impressed you so far?
Potts: Falling prey to recency bias, Denmark’s Mikael Gath deserves credit for taking Nikolaj Ehlers off the top line after an ineffective second period against Germany in Tuesday’s decisive game. Oscar Moelgaard matched Ehlers’ strengths perfectly to set up that vital tying goal...and the rest is history. Overall, though, Switzerland looks like the best-coached unit here. Not many teams could lose a player of captain Nico Hischier’s calibre and barely skip a beat. Patrick Fischer has a group where everyone understands how to slot into the required role, and that makes it a medal contender.
Aykroyd: I’ll circle back to the hat tricks thing again. Andres Ambuhl, playing what is most likely his final Ice Hockey World Championship, has averaged just 9:40 of ice time per game. However, in the 10-0 romp over Hungary, coach Patrick Fischer bumped the 41-year-old legend up to 15:59. Sure, the Swiss were playing with just 11 forwards as Andrighetto and Malgin got some rest. But that said, with Switzerland cruising to victory regardless, Fischer didn’t “need” to put Ambuhl out there for a team-high 8:02 in the third period. But he did. And it was a wonderful team-building exercise. The all-time tournament games-played leader (148 and counting) got his second and third goals of the night and was mobbed by his teammates post-game. That’s the esprit de corps you want when you’re chasing a gold medal. Kudos to Fischer.
Some WM players are virtual locks to suit up at the Olympics in February. Others are on the bubble. In the latter category, who stands out to you as someone who is closer to booking his ticket to Milan?
Aykroyd: The U.S.’s Tage Thompson has made a case for himself as this tournament wears on. Admittedly, he had a slow start with one assist in the first three games. But the Buffalo Sabres star saved his team from embarrassment with his hat trick, including the 6-5 overtime winner, versus Norway. He got the U.S. off on the right foot with a first-period goal and assist against Germany. Thompson leads the Americans in shots (36) by a country mile, adding six in the 5-2 win over Czechia You can see he’s making a conscious effort to focus on puck management, and that of course is key to impressing the USA Hockey braintrust ahead of Milan. For most countries, someone coming off a 44-goal NHL season – tied with Alexander Ovechkin and trailing only Leon Draisaitl (52) and William Nylander (45) – would be an Olympic lock. With the U.S.’s great depth at forward, Thompson isn’t guaranteed anything, but his stock is rising.
Potts: I mentioned Nazar in terms of the scoring race, so I won’t return to him here. Instead, let’s talk about Switzerland's Tyler Moy. The 29-year-old is relatively old for an IIHF World Championship debutant, but his contribution so far has been worth the wait. He’s a big part of the reason why Hischier hasn't been missed too badly, and his nine points through the group phase surely put him firmly in the picture for February’s Italian Job.
Predictions time! Who will win each of the four quarter-finals?
Potts: The bookies will surely have Canada and Switzerland as short-priced favourites over Denmark and Austria and it’s hard to disagree (although, see below!). But the other two are fascinating clashes and both could go either way. I’m going to say home ice advantage will help Sweden past Czechia and take the USA to edge Finland in a squeaker.
Aykroyd: It would be marvelous for the Danes if they can keep it close with Canada. But they’ve already achieved their tournament goal by making it this far, and it’ll be hard to reach new heights after the emotional intensity of that crucial 2-1 shootout win over Germany. The Swiss surely can’t let an opportunity like Austria slip away – they know the pain of a quarter-final flop after a great preliminary round too well from 2022 (3-0 to the U.S.) and 2023 (3-1 to Germany). I’ll take Czech craftiness to top Sweden’s all-around game in a home-ice heartbreaker. As for U.S.-Finland, goalie Juuse Saros is rounding into form at the right time, per Suomi’s 2-1 win over Canada. How can you argue with making 37 saves against Canada and then three NHL greats in Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, and Ryan O’Reilly in the shootout? I’ll say Saros bars the door and sends the Stars and Stripes home early.
Which quarter-final matchup could you imagine spawning an upset?
Potts: I don’t know if I could back the Austrians to win, especially given how impressive Switzerland has been here in Herning. But you sense that Roger Bader’s team will fancy its chances against its neighbour. After rising from relegation strugglers to history-making quarter-finalists, Austria is on a high and you’d expect Bader to have a masterplan that can test his homeland. It’s a tall order, but Kazakhstan pointed the way to slowing the Swiss in the first two periods of Tuesday’s game – and Austria can add some firepower to that defensive grit.
Aykroyd: Gotta second that motion, Andy. Switzerland is still definitely favoured to move on. But if the Austrians can get off to a hot start – and it’ll take more than one goal against to implant the seed of doubt in coach Patrick Fischer’s crew – and stay out of the box, you just never know.
We witnessed a ton of hat tricks in the preliminary round. Which one was the most memorable for you and why?
Potts: I’ll go with Sven Andrighetto’s awesome foursome against Germany. Four-goal hauls are pretty rare at the best of times (even though Eeli Tolvanen was pulling the same stunt at the same time in Stockholm). Reeling off four straight like that is even rarer. With Denis Malgin assisting on each of them, you’ve got a “When was the last time...?” query to test even the most dedicated statistician. And let’s not forget that the Germans are no mugs: this isn’t a case of flexing on a rank outsider.
Aykroyd: Stian Solberg’s hat trick against the Americans stands out just because he’s a 19-year-old defenceman playing for a perennial underdog in Norway. He seemed to just go for it and have so much fun with it. Also, Solberg’s better-known for his physical, agitating presence. It made you wonder if we’ll see more offensive outbursts from him with Anaheim in the future or on an Olympic stage, or whether this was just a curious one-off.
Who from Group B is most likely to win the tournament scoring title?
Aykroyd: Would you believe David Pastrnak has already shattered his personal single-tournament high in points? The Boston superstar leads all skaters so far (6+8=14 in seven games). He’s had never had more than 10 points before (7+3=10 in seven games), dating back to 2022’s bronze medal run. Of course, there’s a big “if” associated with this pick, in that the Czechs will probably need to stun host nation Sweden in the quarter-finals for it to pan out. But given how the chemistry between “Pasta” and captain Roman Cervenka continues to build, I still like his odds.
Potts: Regular Ask The Experts readers (!?) may recall that I’m often dubious about the U.S.’s chances. But this year, the Americans have a “dark horse” vibe. They’ve quietly taken care of business up to now and seemed to get stronger as the preliminary round progressed – culminating in an impressive win over the Czechs. Frank Nazar is already riding high in the scoring race, and you sense that if the U.S. medals, he’ll likely be on the scoring podium.
What’s a savvy coaching decision or tactic that has impressed you so far?
Potts: Falling prey to recency bias, Denmark’s Mikael Gath deserves credit for taking Nikolaj Ehlers off the top line after an ineffective second period against Germany in Tuesday’s decisive game. Oscar Moelgaard matched Ehlers’ strengths perfectly to set up that vital tying goal...and the rest is history. Overall, though, Switzerland looks like the best-coached unit here. Not many teams could lose a player of captain Nico Hischier’s calibre and barely skip a beat. Patrick Fischer has a group where everyone understands how to slot into the required role, and that makes it a medal contender.
Aykroyd: I’ll circle back to the hat tricks thing again. Andres Ambuhl, playing what is most likely his final Ice Hockey World Championship, has averaged just 9:40 of ice time per game. However, in the 10-0 romp over Hungary, coach Patrick Fischer bumped the 41-year-old legend up to 15:59. Sure, the Swiss were playing with just 11 forwards as Andrighetto and Malgin got some rest. But that said, with Switzerland cruising to victory regardless, Fischer didn’t “need” to put Ambuhl out there for a team-high 8:02 in the third period. But he did. And it was a wonderful team-building exercise. The all-time tournament games-played leader (148 and counting) got his second and third goals of the night and was mobbed by his teammates post-game. That’s the esprit de corps you want when you’re chasing a gold medal. Kudos to Fischer.
Some WM players are virtual locks to suit up at the Olympics in February. Others are on the bubble. In the latter category, who stands out to you as someone who is closer to booking his ticket to Milan?
Aykroyd: The U.S.’s Tage Thompson has made a case for himself as this tournament wears on. Admittedly, he had a slow start with one assist in the first three games. But the Buffalo Sabres star saved his team from embarrassment with his hat trick, including the 6-5 overtime winner, versus Norway. He got the U.S. off on the right foot with a first-period goal and assist against Germany. Thompson leads the Americans in shots (36) by a country mile, adding six in the 5-2 win over Czechia You can see he’s making a conscious effort to focus on puck management, and that of course is key to impressing the USA Hockey braintrust ahead of Milan. For most countries, someone coming off a 44-goal NHL season – tied with Alexander Ovechkin and trailing only Leon Draisaitl (52) and William Nylander (45) – would be an Olympic lock. With the U.S.’s great depth at forward, Thompson isn’t guaranteed anything, but his stock is rising.
Potts: I mentioned Nazar in terms of the scoring race, so I won’t return to him here. Instead, let’s talk about Switzerland's Tyler Moy. The 29-year-old is relatively old for an IIHF World Championship debutant, but his contribution so far has been worth the wait. He’s a big part of the reason why Hischier hasn't been missed too badly, and his nine points through the group phase surely put him firmly in the picture for February’s Italian Job.
Predictions time! Who will win each of the four quarter-finals?
Potts: The bookies will surely have Canada and Switzerland as short-priced favourites over Denmark and Austria and it’s hard to disagree (although, see below!). But the other two are fascinating clashes and both could go either way. I’m going to say home ice advantage will help Sweden past Czechia and take the USA to edge Finland in a squeaker.
Aykroyd: It would be marvelous for the Danes if they can keep it close with Canada. But they’ve already achieved their tournament goal by making it this far, and it’ll be hard to reach new heights after the emotional intensity of that crucial 2-1 shootout win over Germany. The Swiss surely can’t let an opportunity like Austria slip away – they know the pain of a quarter-final flop after a great preliminary round too well from 2022 (3-0 to the U.S.) and 2023 (3-1 to Germany). I’ll take Czech craftiness to top Sweden’s all-around game in a home-ice heartbreaker. As for U.S.-Finland, goalie Juuse Saros is rounding into form at the right time, per Suomi’s 2-1 win over Canada. How can you argue with making 37 saves against Canada and then three NHL greats in Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, and Ryan O’Reilly in the shootout? I’ll say Saros bars the door and sends the Stars and Stripes home early.
Which quarter-final matchup could you imagine spawning an upset?
Potts: I don’t know if I could back the Austrians to win, especially given how impressive Switzerland has been here in Herning. But you sense that Roger Bader’s team will fancy its chances against its neighbour. After rising from relegation strugglers to history-making quarter-finalists, Austria is on a high and you’d expect Bader to have a masterplan that can test his homeland. It’s a tall order, but Kazakhstan pointed the way to slowing the Swiss in the first two periods of Tuesday’s game – and Austria can add some firepower to that defensive grit.
Aykroyd: Gotta second that motion, Andy. Switzerland is still definitely favoured to move on. But if the Austrians can get off to a hot start – and it’ll take more than one goal against to implant the seed of doubt in coach Patrick Fischer’s crew – and stay out of the box, you just never know.